Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Adios El Nino?

We all remember what a wet winter it was here in Central Georgia. In fact, Ben talked about it in his last blog giving us the monthly totals. We have El Nino to thank for that! El Nino, in basic terms, is warmer than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific. It often results in wet winters in the southeast, which would explain why we got just over 17.5 inches of rain from December through February.

May - July Precipitation Outlook

El Nino did weaken to moderate strength last month. This is reinforced by the fact that we got 3.49 inches of rain, which is almost an inch and a half below normal for the month. Most of the models are indicating that El Nino will continue weakening as we head toward summer. In fact, some models are even hinting that La Nina may set up. La Nina, in case you were wondering, is cooler than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific. We often have warmer and drier conditions in the southeast during these periods.

Forecasting for the next 7 days is challenging enough much less trying to predict months at a time! Long term forecasts over the next three months show that we have as much of a chance to be soggy as we do to be dry. But as of now, it looks like dry weather is winning this battle. I'll continue to take the forecast one system at a time! Buckle up...it may be a bumpy ride (it is spring after all!)

Meteorologist Sonya Stevens


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